Bharati Q4, Earnings

Bharti Airtel Ltd. came up with its latest 4th Quarter figures, beating the forecasts. India became the world’s fastest growing telecom market. Now it boasts of more than 150 million subscribers, which shows that still only 15% of the country’s population is covered. The projections made by Sunil Mittal look forward to tripling of the total customer base within five years. Which means that around half of the population would be using mobiles.

Bharati which is the telecom leader in India boasts a subscriber base of 39.02 million as on March 07 and has become one of the largest companies in India. It has the third highest market capitalization of more than $40 billion. This means that the company has a total weight of close to 7.5% in NSE Nifty compared to around 10% weight of both ONGC and RIL. It is interesting to note that RCOM (Reliance Communication) has a weight of 4%.

Bharti has relied on GSM technology for its growth compare to RCOM which relies on rival CDMA technology. The battle between these two companies extends from customer base to technology. With introduction of 3G in India the market place will become complex. Already Anil Ambani has shown interest in the rival GSM technology on a limited scale to leverage on 3G techonology.

Bharti for long has maintained a good lead over the competitors. It has maintained its position as a favorite for foreign investors. Currently SingTel (South East Asia’s largest Tel. Comp) holds around 30.8% of the company. Before Vodafone, world’s largest telecom company also held a strategic 10% stake in the company.

Bharti is seeking more efficiency by outsourcing majority of its telecom operations. Bharti’s share rose 21.4% between January and March this year compare with 5.2% in the benchmark index. Bharti’s shares were down 2% at around Rs. 844 compared to the 1.6% drop in the index.

Nifty loosing early gains

Markets falling lower after opening close to 1% high. This is after the Nifty touching breaking the 4200 barrier (touching 4212 points) in the morning with ease. It seems like a technical reaction to the levels that are broken. If all goes well market seems to close higher that 4200 today. This would be a very optimistic rally for the markets.

Annual Policy: Surprise

It was widely accepted that the RBI would increase its rates in its annual policy. Many economists were predicting at least 25 basis points increase in the Repo rates. But the RBI kept its policy rates unchanged; Repo Rates at 7.75%, and Reverse Repo and Bank Rate at 6.00%. Also CRR and SLR were untouched at 6.25% and 25%.

The policy also motioned to curb inflation into a range of 4.0% and 4.5% from the current level of just above 6%. Just recently at a lower level of inflation the RBI increased rates to keep inflation under control. But it resulted in only Rupee appreciating to its highest level for last (aprox 10 years). Rupee so far is the best performer amongst the Asian currencies, appreciating about 15% from lows of around 47.04 in July last year. The RBI was letting the Rupee appreciate with the logic that Rupee appreciation would cut down inflation, by lowering the cost for imports. The higher Rupee is actually hurting the small exporters who were unable to hedge their Forex positions.

But RBI clearly stated in the policy that the affect of currency appreciation on Inflation rates is minor. So it looks like the RBI has no concrete measures to cut down the inflation apart from praying for lower price levels. Main source of increase in the WPI is higher Food commodity prices and infrastructural commodities like cements and steel. A good monsoon (for agricultural commodities) and calm Middle East (for crude oil prices) would help in achieving this.

Meanwhile the Nifty soared to new highs at 4167.30 up from 4141.80 showing a 0.62% increase. Till afternoon the Nifty was showing a downward trend on the back of NIKKEI in Japan which closed -1.24% lower at 17236.16.

RBI Credit Policy

Tomorrow RBI will reveal new tricks in its credit policy. Big changes are expected on the back of Friday’s inflation numbers which showed the WPI increasing above 6% from the expected 5.8% level. The USD/Rupee rates have touched new lows. At current levels many exporters are asking for measures from the government to appreciate the Rupee. Already the Government had taken measures like increasing the CCR and the Repo Rates. Leading to liquidity problems for rupee and huge appreciation of the currency.

UK recently touched its peak of 2 USD for a GBP. This was also triggered by the increase in the interest rates by the BoE. In India it is widely expected that there will be a slight rate hike (around 50 basis points) combined with some regulatory changes. To some extent the large FII inflow is also responsible for the appreciation of Rupee, to arrest this at-least temporarily the government can come up with measures like putting roadblocks to investment in highly speculative sectors like infrastructure. Another thing they can do is imposing some sort of tax on FII investments.

There is a paradox developing here for the RBI and Indian government. On one hand appreciation of Rupee is hurting the exporters. At the same time the appreciation is lowering the prices of the imports of the country, bringing some relief to the inflation levels.

Overall in recent past it can be seen that with appreciation of Rupee there is an increase in the Stock markets. But stringent policy of the government to cut FII investment could have melt down affect on the markets.